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Thursday, April 7, 2011

NHL Playoff Preview

I should probably wait till the teams and pairings are officially announced, but its my first post and I want to get this going. First off I want to say this is a forecast, not a prediction. Trying to predict the NHL playoffs is nearly impossible, very similar to the NCAA Tournament bracket. Last year alone we saw all three division winners lose in the first round of the Eastern Conference. Instead I just want to evaluate each team, how they got here and what to watch for. Today I'll focus on the Eastern Conference and get to the West tomorrow.



Washington Capitals
Southeast division winners. 48-22-11 107 pts.
The Capitals did not start the season in typical fashion, getting off to a slow start posting a 6-4-0 record through their first ten games. Something NHL fans are not use to seeing from a team who has absolutely dominated the past few seasons. In December, fans caught a glimpse of life in the Washington locker room on the outstanding HBO Series, "24/7" a preview of this year's winter classic between the Caps and Pittsburgh Penguins at Heinz Field. Eight straight losses from December 2- December 18 had fans wondering where this team really stood. They put together 3 wins in a row ending with a win over the Pens on New Year's Day to end 2010 and start the new year. Since then, 30 wins and ten regulation losses. They have taken control of the Southeast and the Eastern Conference once again currently sitting in the number 1 spot with a 4 point lead. This isn't a typical Caps team though. Scoring is down, defense is up. There defense has only allowed 196 goals (7th of 30), and thats all behind the play of young unknown goalies, Semyon Varlamov, Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby.
Player to Watch: Alexander Ovechkin
One of the greatest players in the world, Ovi started out with one of the worst years in his short career.
He is on pace for the worst statistical year in his career, (32 G 53 A) with one game remaining.
Its no secret he is the catalyst for this team. He's developed his game and become a better two
way player,something they will need to see in the playoffs. He has produced in the playoffs
before and if they don't have an another embarrassing first round knockout, he'll have to do
it all again.

Philadelphia Flyers
46-23-11 103 pts.
Another slow starting team picked up the play after the first ten games of the season. At the all-star break they were 33-12-5
sitting atop the Eastern Conference. They've been atop the league all year, but recently have slipped into second place.
They have won only 6 of their last 18 and now are only 1 point ahead of in state rival Pittsburgh in the Atlantic division. They're limping into the
playoffs for sure, but a balanced scoring attack behind Daniel Briere, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter and Claude Giroux solid
defensive play and the experience from last year's cup run makes the Flyers an incredibly dangerous team. Another
team lacking a big name net minder, they definately have their weaknesses. Then again it didn't stop them last year.
Player to Watch: Chris Pronger
The guy is ridiculous. Wherever he plays, you can reserve a spot in the finals. Edmonton in 2006. Anaheim in 2007 (Champions)
Philly in 2010. A veteran presence, he certainly demands attention on the ice. he does get away with every little, push, slash,
hook and pull under the sun, but after being in the league that long no one will say or do anything. He does have injury
concerns, but if he comes back healthy and ready to go, another long run may await the Flyers again.

Boston Bruins
Northeast Division Champs 45-24-11 101 pts.
Boston has been an interesting team all season. For the first half of the season behind the play of goalies Tim Thomas and
Tuukka Rask it felt like no one could score a single goal against this team. Thomas, who is the head on favorite to win
this year's Vezina trophy has been outstanding for Boston posting a 2.02 GAA. Of all the division winners the Bruins seem
to be the most vulnerable. They made a deep run last year and held a 3-0 game
advantage before falling to the Flyers in seven. They have experience and bulked up their offense adding Nathan Horton (25 G 27 A)
in the offseason. If Thomas plays in the playoffs like in the regular season, a finals appearance is possible.
Player to watch: Patrice Bergeron
Boston doesn't have the big all-star forward like a lot of other Eastern Conference teams do. It's really an offense by committee
from Lucic, Krejci, Horton and Bergeron. Bergeron has got to be the guy that steps up and makes the big plays. He does all the
intangibles for this team. His offense has been streaky all season, but has managed some decent numbers for the third
leading scorer on the team, (22 G 35 A).

Pittsburgh Penguins
47-25-8 102 pts.
It's obvious no team in the league has overcome more than the Penguins. They lose two world class players and the golden boy of
the NHL after the winter classic and you figure they're done. It's the exact opposite. They've continued to win. Pittsburgh is right in the
thick of it currently one point back of Philly two games to play. Marc-Andre Fleury has once again carried this team with 35 wins and a
2.31 GAA, hes kept them in games and really helped keep this team moving forward. Winning teams always find ways to win
Dan Bylsma has built a winning culture in pittsburgh and even with the loss of their two best players, they could be the most
dangerous team in the playoffs.
Player to watch: Sydney Crosby
Love him or hate him, he's the best player in the world. He was on pace to have an amazing season the NHL hasn't seen in a while
A concussion has kept him out for half the season, but he's set to make a return for the playoffs. Just his presence on the bench
makes this team instantly better and more confident. On the ice he gives them that x factor. They've been there before and they
know what it takes. This is the most dangerous team in the league with Crosby on the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning
44-25-11 99 pts.
A big year from the Bolts has gotten them back in the playoffs. The most dangerous offensive team in the conference has two 100 point
guys and a top goal scorer in former first rounder and all-start Steven Stamkos (44 G). They held on to the Southeast division for a while
when Washington struggles early on. They'v since relinquished the lead, but have managed to stay in the mix and are still not out
of a possible first round home ice advantage. New GM Steve Yzerman made one of the biggest mid season acquisitions
picking up veteran goalie Dwayne Roloson from the fledgling New York Islanders. There defense is pretty awful, they have given
236 goals this season, by far the worst of the top 8 teams, so they need him to step up big time in the postseason.
Player to watch: Vincent Lecavalier
The third leading scorer on the team he recently suffered a facial injury and is day to day heading into the start of the playoffs.
They have to have him on the ice. The Lightning need to score to win and they need Vinny to score.

Montreal Canadiens
43-30-7 93 pts.
Montreal shocked their fans and the league this summer when they traded playoff sensation from 2010, goalie Jaroslav Halak,
to St. Louis. Carey Price has had serious ups and downs in Montreal in his short tenure between the pipes. Many people
scratched thier heads after the move. It worked out for them. Price has been an iron man for them accounting for a career high
37 of the teams 43 wins. He's a Vezina finalist and have people forgetting all about Halak in Montreal. There is no doubt the
team has struggled in the last two months. They clinched a spot in the playoffs, but could still fall to eighth with two games
remaining.
Player to Watch: Carey Price
Can he hold up? Can he make the same kind of run Halak did last year? He's played in A LOT of games this year and had alot
of ups, but some downs as well. Montreal doesn't have the big name scorer, but have depth at every position. Price's success
will dictate how far this team can really go.

Buffalo Sabres
41-29-10 92 pts.
Now I'm not being biased when I say this, but there hasn't been a better team in the NHL since the midway point than the Buffalo Sabres.
Seriously, look it up. They've been on a huge run, not only to get back into contention to make the playoffs, but now for better
positioning in the top eight. Terry Pegula brought in a winner's mentality and everyone in Buffalo bought into it. They went from
sellers to buyers with the roster, they have transformed the culture in the locker room and now are poised for a second playoff
berth in a row. Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, Tyler Ennis, Jason Pominville, Andrej Sekera and even Jhonas Enroth have
contributed immensely over the past three months. Ryan Miller will be ready to go by playoff time, but a small injury is concerning.
He's a big game goalie and the Sabres need him to be on his game this year.
Player to watch: Tyler Myers
It's no coincidence the Sabres were awful at the beginning of the year and Calder Cup winner Tyler Myers was equally as bad.
A sophomore slump looked inevitable as the he struggled to produce along with the team. Myers broke out of his slump and
the team has awoken as previously mentioned, and again, no coincidence. He has the size, skill and poise to be the next
Chris Pronger or Chara.

New York Rangers
43-32-5 91 pts.
Another team that has been all over the place in the standings this year. They lost six in a row from the end of January through the
middle of February. In march they bounced back in it and won 5 in a row. They've been all over the place, beating Philly 7-0
in March, beating Pittsburgh 5-2 two weeks later and shutting out Boston a week after that. However, they lost a crucial
game to Ottawa 2-1 in a shootout, a 1-0 loss to Buffalo and a horrible 6-2 loss to the Islanders all at the end of March. In April
they started with a thrilling 3-2 OT win over Philly followed up by a win over Boston the next night 5-3. Where is this team?
It's hard to tell which team will show up on each given night and that is what has led them to the eighth spot just two points
ahead of Carolina.
Player to watch: Marian Gaborik
Gaborik has to step up after the Rangers lost Ryan Callahan to injury this week. Gaborik is a huge scoring threat, with major
talent. New York has struggled to score goals this year and losing one of your top guys before the start of the post season is not what you want.

Carolina Hurricanes
39-30-11 89 pts.
Let's be honest, who didn't think it was over for Carolina last week when they lost to Buffalo 2-1 in OT on their home ice.
How did they respond? A 3-0 shutout of western conference power Detroit three nights later. They're still in it, but have little
room for error at this point. One loss and they are almost all but guaranteed out. They have had a fun season. Eric Staal was well, Eric Staal
Jeff Skinner is a Calder Cup finalist and the All-star game and pre game drat was fun to see in Carolina. There's little
hope left, but still some hope to make the playoffs.
Player to watch: Cam Ward
If they do make the playoffs, Ward, better be on the top of his game, as he was in 2006 when they one the cup. He's posted 36
of the teams 39 wins and has a modest 2.56 GAA. He's already helped the team get to this point, but he'll really have to show
up if they make the final eight.


-Phil






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